By Tiger Hebert
Last year was an exciting and much needed season of optimism for the Detroit Lions and their fans. However, while the Lions are good enough to play with anybody, they are not good enough to consistently win these tough games. The Lions are going to miss the playoffs this year, and their record will probably end up with only 5 to 6 wins by the end of the season.
Perhaps the most frustrating part of that, is that 7 of their 8 losses this season are of only 8 points or less. Their worst loss of the season is by 10 points to the Vikings. But as Bill Parcels said, "You are what your record says you are." So that means the Lions are a tantalizingly talented team that is good enough to almost win a lot, but rarely is able to seal the deal.
A lot of fans, myself included, get frustrated as the team continues to disappoint us. We want to see Martin Mayhew and the coaching staff replaced, because ultimately we all know that is the reason that they are underachieving. We convince ourselves that it is their fault that the Lions lead the NFL in dropped passes, have the 4th most turnovers, sit near the bottom of the league in penalties, boast a mediocre running game at best, and rank 25th in scoring defense. A lot of those things can be worked on with coaching, but let's be honest, those are indicators that this team needs more quality players. More indicators are that this team is 21st in opponents passer rating, 15th in takeaways, and 16th in sacks. Mayhew and company need to stop kidding themselves, they need more talent.
In the first article of the series, I covered player retention and player losses. I know the numbers are only estimates, but I had the Lions in my scenario looking at around $33.8 million in cap space with the moves that I suggested. With certain bonuses and escalators in player contracts that number could certainly shrink, but let's use it at a starting point. Then if we were to look at the rookie wage scale for the previous years and the current contracts we have on the books for last seasons draft picks, we could estimate that the Lions would would need to set aside around $7 million of that to money for the 2013 Lions draft class. However, without knowing what the Lions' rookie salary cap is for 2013, and how many players will be on the roster come draft day, this is rather impossible to determine.
So for simplicity sake, we will use those numbers and estimate that the Lions would have around $25 million in cap space in this scenario. So with that ballpark figure in mind, we can take a look at some possible free agent targets that could improve this team from day one. Players are listed in order of priority.
William Moore - Strong Safety - 6'0 218lbs
I find it hard to image that the Atlanta Falcons won't find a way to lock up the former 2nd round pick out of Missouri. Moore has been a starter for the last three years, and he is probably playing the best football of his young career at this point. Pro Football Focus has ranked him as one of the top free agents of 2013. Each season his stop rates in both the pass and the run game have improved. The hard hitting safety is 27 years old, but he is still in his prime, especially for safeties who often have more longevity than other positions. The Lions don't play the traditional strong and free safety, rather they simply run a left and a right safety in their defensive system. This would require a little adjustment for Moore, but the good news is that he would still be playing on the left side of the defense, which he will be more familiar with as a strong safety. Another thing I really like about Moore, besides his physical style, is that he plays for the least penalized team in the NFL. Not only are they disciplined, but they have been consistently good. He may not have post season accolades yet, but Moore is used to winning. Which is something Detroit sorely needs. Another advantage to going after a player like Moore if he hits the market, is that safety is a position that doesn't command as high a salary as a similar caliber corner or defensive end. In 2012 Ed Reed had the largest cap hit of any safety at $7.2 million, and the franchise tag would be in the area of $6.2 million. This means that a player like Moore could conceivably be locked up for around $5 million a year.
I also like Dashon Goldson, but I don't think we could land him. Patrick Chung is another talented safety just entering his prime, but I am not sure that the Patriots will let him slip away.
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| Getty Images - Andy Levitre and Fred Jackson |
The Bills used a 2nd round pick on Levitre in 2009, and he has only started every single game since then. He has been an important part of one of the better offensive lines in the NFL, particularly in the run game. According to Football Outsiders, the Bills are the #3 ranked run blocking line in the NFL. In addition to that, Levitre was ranked as the 6th most effective pass blocking guard in the league by Pro Football Focus. I don't know how the Bills could let this star lineman walk away, but if he hits the market he will garner a lot of attention. I don't think he will find the kind of money that Logan Mankins, Carl Nicks or Jahri Evans have, because I don't think he is as dominant in the run game. But getting his service could still be cost prohibitive for Detroit. Landing Levitre, if possible would mean that the Lions would be cutting Stephen Peterman and his $2.65 million salary. If they parlayed some of that towards a deal worth in the $4 to $5 million range per year, this 26 year old stud would help fortify the Lions offensive line for years to come.
Andy Levitre is the only offensive lineman that catches my eye as a potential free agent target for the Lions. There are other players that have played very well this year including Branden Albert and Ryan Clady, but I believe Guard is a bigger need than Tackle, and I think his contact number will be significantly smaller than the dollars that those two players will command.
Brandon Gibson - Wide Receiver - 6'1 210lbs
The Eagles took a chance on the Washington State product in the 6th round of the 2009 draft. However, they gave up the young player before the season was even half way over. The Rams quickly snatched up the pass catcher to bolster their depleted receiving core. Gibson has slowly earned the trust of Sam Bradford and has become the teams most effective receiver. Danny Amendola, when healthy, still gets more of Bradford's targets, but it is Gibson that ranks higher according to Football Outsiders rankings of all receivers with a minimum amount of targets. In fact in total value, Gibson is ranked 26th. In value per play, he ranks even higher at 13th among all receivers that have had at least 42 targets this season. His catch rate is 61% of all his targets and he has produced 4 touchdowns and 27 first downs on just 34 receptions. So he is producing a game altering play on 31 of the 34 times he catches the ball. 55% of the time he is targeted, the Rams have scored or gotten a first down. In 2013 Brandon Gibson is set to be an unrestricted free agent, and he is a low-budget type of player that could be a steal for the Lions as a compliment to Calvin Johnson and what is hopefully, a healthy Ryan Broyles. And at 25 years old, they could continue to build with players just hitting their prime.
There are plenty of receivers that will be hitting the market this spring, but most of them are too old or too costly. There are two other names that are worth watching out for though in addition to Gibson. Those players are Domenik Hixon of the Giants and Danario Alexander in San Diego. Both are speedy players that can stretch the field, but Alexander is the one who is the most intriguing. The 6'5 receiver couldn't cut it in St. Louis, but he has been a secret star in his six games with the Chargers. Since he has been such a pleasant surprise, I expect they will tender the Restricted Free Agent and keep him right there.
Rounding Out the Roster
These are probably not the names that a lot of people would like to see on this list. They clearly don't address all the Lions' needs. There are positions like running back, cornerback, center and defensive end that most fans expected to see listed here. Those sentiments are completely understood, but I don't think the value is right for them to pursue those options in free agency unless some of these other targets didn't pan out. But for argument sake, lets take a look at a few of the options.
Everyone knows this team needs to find a replacement for Jahvid Best. Unfortunately that is simply easier said than done. Most of the options on the free agency list for 2013 will either cost too much or simply don't fit the bill. Two exceptions could be La'Rod Stephens-Howling and Mike Goodson. Neither players are feature backs, but both could be complimentary players with game breaking speed. However, both will likely be re-signed or cost a tad too much for a 3rd down back.
Among the cornerbacks people will be drawn to the big names like DRC or Sean Smith, but these guys will just be too pricey. Perhaps Nnamdi Asomugha will be cut by the Eagles as they continue to clean house, but at his age, he would need to be bargain bin price to even be considered.
There is nothing to write about among the list of centers that are free agents this year, and grooming Bill Nagy or drafting a center to replace Raiola is probably the better and more affordable route.
When it comes to the defensive ends, there is actually a large amount of talent that will be hitting the market this spring. There are both established players like Osi and rising players like Michael Bennett, Michael Johnson, and Henry Melton. All of those players would have an immediate impact, but their price tags would simply be too high and it is unlikely that their current teams will let them go without a fight. The NFL is a passing league, and there is a premium price tag on men who can put the quarterback on the ground. So it is one reason why it is an area that they should try to replenish in the draft, and not free agency.
The Lions will need to make more than just three free agent pick ups to fill the roster, but for most of the pick ups, they need to find young players that are not established who will play for league minimum contracts. Hopefully the Lions find a way to accumulate some extra picks in the draft, as well as possibly bringing in a few undrafted free agents. However, the draft speculation will have to wait for another day. So keep an eye out for our next installment in the series with 2013 Detroit Lions Offseason Strategy: The NFL Draft.
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